Bitcoin's recent surge has hit a critical juncture, with CryptoQuant Research Head Julio Moreno sounding the alarm on mounting correction risks. Moreno's warnings are grounded in a comprehensive analysis of technical and on-chain indicators, highlighting a potential pullback as Bitcoin approaches a pivotal resistance zone.
Moreno's firm, CryptoQuant, has been vocal about the impending correction for weeks, citing a confluence of factors. High unrealized profits, a surge in profit-taking activities across spot and futures markets, and a slowdown in US spot demand have all contributed to this cautious outlook. The 200-day moving average at $82,400 emerges as a key resistance level, mirroring the dynamics of March 2022 when Bitcoin rallied 43% before facing a similar challenge.
The comparison with March 2022 is pivotal. CryptoQuant emphasizes that the 200-day moving average isn't merely a technical line but a critical juncture where bear-market rallies often falter due to weak demand and heightened profit-taking. Bitcoin's 37% ascent from April lows has brought it to this inflection point, raising questions about the sustainability of the current rally.
A critical concern is the surge in unrealized profits, reaching 17.7% on May 5, the highest since June 2025. This indicates that traders with substantial paper gains are becoming more inclined to sell into strength, especially as the rally nears a widely watched resistance level. The conditions in March 2022, when Bitcoin tested the 200-day moving average before resuming its decline, are eerily similar to the current scenario.
Realized profit data further underscores the potential for selling pressure. Daily realized profits surged to 14.6K BTC on May 4, the highest since December 10, 2025. Historically, such spikes during bear-market rallies have heralded local tops as short-term holders accelerate selling into price strength. The demand side of the market also remains weak, with the Coinbase Bitcoin Price Premium turning negative in late April and remaining below zero as Bitcoin approached $80,000, indicating decelerating US investor demand.
While spot demand has improved, it remains negative, with the contraction narrowing from minus 91K BTC in April to minus 11K BTC. CryptoQuant notes that this indicates less severe conditions but not strong enough to confirm sustained spot accumulation. The firm also observes that demand growth is more concentrated in speculative perpetual futures positioning than in spot buying.
In the event of a correction, CryptoQuant identifies the main on-chain support level near $70,000, represented by the Traders' On-chain Realized Price. This level has historically acted as a resistance-turned-support band in bear markets, reflecting the average cost basis of short-term traders. As of the latest press time, BTC traded at $76,961, indicating that the market is still navigating this critical juncture.
